How simulation improves assortment decisions
Simulation lets you test assortment changes before implementing them. By modeling how consumers redistribute their choices when changes occur, you can predict the effect of adding, removing or replacing products.
TURF gives you a static answer: the best assortment given the data points. But reality is dynamic. What happens if you add a product? Remove one? What happens to volume on existing products when a new one is introduced? These questions require simulation.
Simulation models take acceptance data and build a model of the consumer's choice behavior. The model can then test hypothetical scenarios: if we swap flavor X for flavor Y, how is volume redistributed? Which existing products are cannibalized? Where does the new volume come from — own products, competitors, or new recruitment?
Reflect integrates TURF results with simulation models to give a complete picture. TURF optimization identifies the most promising assortment combinations, and simulation quantifies the expected effect of each change. It gives the decision-maker not just "best assortment" but the entire effect chain.
Key takeaways
- Simulation tests assortment changes before implementation
- Models volume redistribution when products are added or removed
- Separates new volume from cannibalization
- Identifies where new volume comes from
- Integrates with TURF for complete assortment strategy
Example
A confectionery producer considered launching a new flavor. TURF showed it had high incremental reach. Simulation showed, however, that 60% of the expected volume would cannibalize the second most popular variant. The net effect at portfolio level was close to zero. Instead, a variant with lower reach but higher net contribution was launched.
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