Services

Simulation & Decision Support

We simulate market scenarios at the individual level — not with averages.

The Challenge

Aggregate models hide reality. Averages lie. Decisions based on aggregates lead to strategies optimized for nobody.

Who is it for?

Analysts, strategy teams and decision-makers who need to understand consequences before they act.

Our approach

We model at the individual level. First choice, share of preference and share of volume are three different simulation modes.

Deliverables

Individual-level market simulation
scenario analysis
calibration against actual market data
decision matrices.

Related reading

Read more about the methods and perspectives behind our work.

When conjoint works and when it does not

Conjoint works best when the consumer makes conscious trade-offs between clear attributes. It works poorly in low-involvement categories, with habitual behavior, and when price dominates the decision.

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First choice vs share of preference

First choice shows what the consumer picks first. Share of preference shows how preference is distributed. Which metric is right depends on the category's purchase behavior, and they often give entirely different answers.

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Individual level, not aggregate

The average consumer does not exist. Simulation models that work at the individual level capture heterogeneity in preferences and give markedly better forecasts than aggregated models.

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How simulation should adapt to category

The same simulation model does not work in all categories. Purchase process, involvement, repertoire behavior and price sensitivity vary, and the simulation model must reflect that reality.

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Reflect simulation model

Our simulation model works at the individual level, is calibrated against observed data, and adapts to the category's purchase behavior. The result is forecasts that hold up, not just in the presentation but in the market.

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Interested?

Get in touch to discuss how we can help.